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Social Security COLA Forecast 2025: Analyst Predicts Lower Increase Amid Rising Costs

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Independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson has recently made headlines with her forecast regarding the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security retirement and disability benefits in 2025. Johnson’s prediction indicates a 2.5 percent increase, slightly lower than the 2.57 percent estimate from earlier in August.


According to Johnson’s projections, if her forecast holds true, a beneficiary currently receiving $1,870 per month from the Social Security Administration (SSA) can expect a monthly payment boost of approximately $46.80 come 2025.


In response to inquiries, Johnson expressed concerns over the impending COLA figure and its impact on beneficiaries’ purchasing power. “The 2025 COLA is expected to be the lowest since 2021, in a challenging economic climate where prices on essential goods and services, such as housing, meats, auto insurance, and repairs, continue to soar,” Johnson shared with Newsweek. Despite the decrease compared to recent years, she noted that a 2.5 percent COLA could still be perceived as fairly average by industry standards.


The official announcement regarding the 2025 COLA is scheduled for October 10, with the adjustment determined based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rates for the third quarter of the year, covering July, August, and September. The CPI-W is a metric that monitors the spending patterns of the American workforce.


Given the current economic climate and the expected lower COLA increase, many Social Security beneficiaries are closely watching for the official announcement to plan their finances accordingly. Stay tuned for further updates as the situation develops.

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